The American presidential election is already two weeks away, and candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are neck and neck in the polls. However, on Polymarket, the decentralized betting platform, there is a clear favorite, Trump. Whether this is a reliable signal remains questionable, given speculation about foreign influence and whales manipulating the odds.
Whales give Trump an advantage
On Polymarket, the popular crypto prediction market that is on Ethereum (ETH) is active, there are massive bets on the election results. Currently, Polymarket estimates the Opportunities for Trump to win at 64.1 percent, compared to 35.8 percent for current Vice President Harris. This landslide victory is in sharp contrast to most traditional polls, such as that of Reutersin which Harris currently leads 46 percent to 43 percent.
However, the network must carefully verify that the large amounts do not come from the United States, as American users are no longer allowed to bet on the election results in the United States. Still, there are concerns that some American users are using VPNs to circumvent these blocks. Polymarket checked now stricter as to whether the big players are actually outside the USA.
This follows speculation that some large “whales” are manipulating the US presidential election odds in favor of Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump. There are Rumors about an anonymous Polymarket user known as “Fredi9999” who is said to have bet more than $20 million on Republican results. This led to even more questions about the reliability of results on Polymarket.
Kalshi also sees Trump as the winner of the presidential election
Another prediction site, Kalshi, also has Donald Trump leading with 60 percent. Again, there are concerns about the influence of large foreign players on the market. Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour has emphasized that Polymarket and Kalshi’s results are not caused by unfair manipulation.
There are also voices that point out that Polymarket’s numbers are not an indication of the actual election result. Billionaire Mark Cuban, an investor in Polymarket, notes that the majority of bets on Polymarket come from users outside the US. This suggests that the bets are not representative of the sentiment of American voters.
Polymarket was previously fined $1.4 million by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in January 2022 for offering more than 900 event-based markets without the necessary approvals. Additionally, the CFTC was partially rebuffed in a lawsuit against Kalshi, which ruled that the regulator had exceeded its authority by forcing Kalshi to suspend its election markets.
The American presidential elections will take place on November 5th and in Bitcoin news section We will of course keep you up to date on all developments. Although ‘Crypto President’ Trump is the declared favorite in the prediction markets, it looks to be an exciting battle.
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