Expert Says Balaji’s Timing Was Off, Not His Prediction


Samson Mow, CEO at Jan3 and a staunch Bitcoin advocate, recently sparked a discussion among the crypto community, suggesting that Bitcoin’s journey to reaching a valuation of $1 million is still plausible.

Mow’s statement comes from views and predictions on BTC within the crypto community, including Balaji Srinivasan, a former a16z partner and Coinbase CTO.

Balaji’s Initial $1 Million BTC Outlook

In March, amid a tumultuous financial environment marked by the bankruptcy and subsequent rescue of several US banks, including those with ties to the crypto world like Silvergate and Signature Bank, Balaji Srinivasan placed a $2 million bet on a similar million-dollar trajectory for BTC.

The former Coinbase CTO mainly bet that BTC would hit a million-dollar price tag in 90 days. Balaji based his forecast on the rampant money printing by the US Treasury and Federal Reserve and the ongoing banking crisis.

While agreeing with Balaji’s price target, Mow noted that these events hadn’t sustained enough momentum to propel BTC to such heights. Though the former Coinbase executive eventually exited the bet, Mow disclosed that Balaji was never wrong about the $1 million BTC price target “but was wrong on the timing and the catalyst.”

Mow pointed out that the “normies,” or average people yet to embrace crypto fully, sought refuge in other banks instead of turning to BTC.

Path To A Million: Institutional Capital And Bitcoin Halving

Delving deeper into the mechanics of BTC’s potential rise, Mow attributes the potential surge to a significant influx of institutional capital, coupled with the scarcity induced by BTC halving events.

The Bitcoin advocate anticipates that as institutional investors pump capital into the market, the limited availability of BTC will further drive up its price. This view aligns with the BTC community’s long-standing anticipation of institutional investment as a key driver for substantial price increases.

Mow’s belief is echoed by Bitcoin analyst Bit Paine, who provides a mathematical foundation for the million-dollar Bitcoin hypothesis. Paine’s analysis begins with the basic principles of supply and demand, calculating the new Bitcoin supply for upcoming cycles and estimating potential sales from long-term holders based on HODL Waves data.

His projection involves a massive capital influx of around $4.5 trillion, identifying U.S. retirement savings and corporate treasuries as potential major contributors.

In addition to institutional investments, Paine also outlines other factors that could contribute to Bitcoin’s rise. These include increasing adoption by nation-states and the impact of new money creation, especially concerning the vast global bond market.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) price is moving sideways on the 4-hour chart. Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView.com

Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView



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