In the first few months of his presidency, Donald Trump was like an elephant in porcelain shop. In doing so, he damaged trade relationships and at the same time caused geopolitical tensions. Due to the uncertainty that his trade policy triggered, the Nasdaq is in a bear market, the S&P 500 fell by almost 20 % and also Bitcoin Has hard to fight.
Could it be that we are near a floor? There is a very strong signal that speaks for it.
Strong signal for soil formation
It is interesting that very few investors currently hold long positions on the US stock market.
Wow, Absolutely No One is long and trump is softening his tone on Tariffs. pic.twitter.com/nvcicnrxjo
– ◢ j ◎ e mccann 🧊 (@Joemccann) April 12, 2025
This is usually a sign that the market is located on or near a low – especially if you combine this with the observation that Trump seems to withdraw something in relation to his trade war.
Today the European and Asian stock markets are already presenting themselves in rich green, and Bitcoin is also developing positively. The Bitcoin course is currently $ 84,800-well above the preliminary low of $ 74,000.
Can anything still save this bull market?
It is difficult to argue that Bitcoin and other risky systems are currently still in a bull market. That is simply not the case. But it would also be too easy to go straight from a bear market.
Why? Because many of the current price declines are due to one person – and this person could change their policy as quickly as quickly.
Even if Trump’s trade war should not last too long, there are currently no signs of irreparable damage or an inevitable recession.
Therefore, the loss of price on the financial markets seems to be due to fear and uncertainty – and not actually dramatic economic data that would indicate a recession.
It is also striking that Bitcoin apparently recovered and works upwards within the 21-200-day ema cloud.
Bitcoin is again about its 21-day exponential moving average, and if the remaining average values are exceeded, this could indicate a continuation of the bull market.
(Tagstotranslate) Trump