The inflation expectations in the United States explode as a result of President Donald Trump’s trade war. A lot of fear and uncertainty seems to rule. While economic growth gets a damper, inflation increases, and this creates fear of the fright scenario of stagflation.
Stagflation is spoken of when economic growth shrinks and inflation increases. However, Bitcoin seems to be less and less impressed by Donald Trump’s moods and his government.
Inflation expectations shoot up
Nick Timiraos, who is considered someone with close connections to the American central bank on Wall Street, published the graphic below yesterday. In it we see that the inflation expectations in the United States have increased particularly at short notice.
For the coming year, the inflation expectation rose from 3.1 percent in February to 3.6 percent in March. While the expectation for the next three years is 3 percent and has dropped from 3 percent to 2.9 percent for the next five years.
The NY Fed Survey Shows One-Year Ahead Inflation Expectations Rose to 3.6% in March from 3.1% in February
Three-Year Ahead inflation Expectations hero steady at 3%
Five-Year Ahead Inflation Expectation Ticked Down to 2.9% from 3%. pic.twitter.com/Q4NT0XZNEL
– Nick Timiraos (@nicktimiraos) April 14, 2025
So it is really about short -term problems, and this also explains the price movements that we are currently seeing. Also note that it is inflation expectations. Some of these are based on the uncertainty and fear that Trump creates with his trade war.
What else can Bitcoin save?
We must not forget that Donald Trump has only worked as President of the United States for almost three months.
Sometimes it feels like the man has been going over the world for a long time and put pressure on his import tariffs, but it has just started. As quickly as he created the unrest, it can disappear again. In principle, the economy is not yet so badly damaged that there is no way back, and Trump will also understand that he cannot continue the current policy for too long.
As far as Bitcoin is concerned, there seems to be careful recovery, which makes it more and more likely that the soil is reached. In order to obtain the ultimate confirmation for this, the Bitcoin course would have to climb this week over its 100-day exponential moving average.
At this point, the course over the complete EMA cloud with four cuts, and mostly this is a signal that the course can rise again. But be careful: that’s just a signal. Ultimately is Bitcoin Of course, dependent on many factors.
(Tagstotranslate) Donald Trump