Why Bitcoin’s Staggering 260% YTD Surge Could Be Just The Start

The price of Bitcoin slowed down its ascend following a week of smashing critical resistance levels. However, the rally is likely in its early stages, with BTC preparing to see further profits in the coming months.

As of this writing, the cryptocurrency trades at $43,300, reclaiming levels last seen in 2022 before the crash to its yearly lows. In the weekly chart, BTC records a 15% rally, with Ethereum following the trend while other altcoins lagged behind the two most prominent cryptocurrencies.

bitcoin chart btc btcusdt
BTC’s price trends to the upside on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview

Spot Bitcoin Jumps 15% In December, Eyes On Potential SEC Approval

The crypto market has witnessed another remarkable surge in Bitcoin (BTC), with a 15% increase in just the first week of December. According to QCP Capital’s latest market update, this growth takes BTC’s year-to-date (YTD) gain to 260%.

This exponential rise is primarily attributed to the anticipation surrounding the approval of a spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

On December 1st, the SEC announced that January 5th, 2024, will be the final deadline for rebuttal comments. This timeline sets the stage for probable approval in the week following.

Although QCP Capital humorously notes that the significance of the 15th anniversary of Bitcoin’s Genesis block on January 3rd, 2024, might be lost on the SEC, the “market has certainly taken note.”

As Bitcoin nears the $45,000 mark leading up to the expected announcement, investors are weighing how much of this news has already been priced. The post-ETF approval period will be critical, as the real impact depends on the actual flows from the ETF in its initial trading weeks. A ‘sell-the-news’ event is possible next year if expectations don’t match reality.

Asian Buyers Re-Enter Market, When Altcoin Season?

The December 1st announcement has also spurred renewed interest from Asian buyers, who had been less active in the preceding month. Notably, most of the recent spot gains have occurred during U.S. trading hours as investors in the country take positions in preparation for the SEC announcement.

Bitcoin price BTC BTCUSDT Chart 2
As measured by trading hours, US investors are behind the current Bitcoin rally, but there is an increase in activity from the Asian market. Source: QCP Capital

As the market prepares for the launch of the spot ETF, investors won’t find themselves short of options. With 13 applications for spot ETFs and several others for leveraged and options-based ETFs in the pipeline, the traditional finance ecosystem surrounding BTC (and soon ETH) is poised for significant expansion.

QCP Capital anticipates that in a market characterized by low costs and tight spreads, structured products might emerge as a key asset class for generating alpha, similar to other markets like gold. The trading desk noted:

This means that should spot BTC top on launch day itself, it will not stop the Traditional Finance ecosystem boom around BTC, and soon ETH – the likes of which we have been writing about for years now.

A report from the Glassnode co-founders indicates that the altcoin sector is already trying to catch up with the current BTC price action. The current pullback could provide an opportunity for smaller coins waiting to benefit from the bullish momentum.

Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview

Leave a Comment