Bitcoin (BTC) is faced with a phase of increased volatility. The course recently moved within the price range of $ 70,000 to $ 82,000-accompanied by violent price fluctuations. It is quite possible that further movements will follow in this zone.
Large “Supply Gap” about current BTC course
The reason for the expected volatility is in the so -called low supply gap in the current price range. This clearly emerges from an analysis of the blockchain analysis company Glassnode.
The indicator used is the UrPD graphic (Utxo Realized Price Distribution). Utxo stands for Unspent Transaction Outputi.e. Bitcoin amounts that have been preserved but have not yet been issued.
The UrPD graphics show at what price these UTXOS were last moved. This provides information about how many BTC were bought or sold in certain price zones- and helps to recognize potential support or resistance zones.
In the graphic, it is particularly noticeable that there was little trade activity in the range between $ 70,000 and $ 80,000 – marked by a highlighted rectangle.
Why were so few Bitcoin bought in this zone?
In the run-up to the US presidential election 2024, in which Trump started as a candidate, the Bitcoin course rapidly rose from $ 70,000 to $ 80,000. The market literally rushed through this range – it was hardly time for extensive commercial activity.
As a result, there are few utxos in this area – so little historical purchase activity. This leads to a so -called supply gap.
What does that mean? In price zones with low historical trade activity, there is a lack of strong levels of support or resistance. This increases the likelihood of sudden, strong price movements as soon as the Bitcoin course goes through this zone again.
Support zone at $ 65,000
Around 25 % of all bitcoins in circulation are currently “under water” – that is, they have been bought at a higher price than is currently being traded. According to the URPD data, a significantly higher concentration of purchases can be seen at around $ 65,000. This zone could serve as support in the event of further course declines.
The recent decline in price has caused many short -term investors to sell their positions, which has generated additional sales pressure. Combined with a negative market mood – among other things visible in the decline of the Fear and Greed Index – the potential for further volatility remains.
Nevertheless, the mood could turn quickly: President Trump announced yesterday to postpone new import tariffs by 90 days – which led to a recovery on the financial markets, also at Cryptocurrencies.